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2007'09.02.Sun
Consumer Confidence Shows Broad-Based Drop in August as Rising Home Prices Weaken Future Expectations
August 29, 2007



    SHANGHAI, China, Aug. 29 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Xinhua
Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index (CCCI) was
updated today, with the survey results showing a
broad-based decline in August, as rapidly rising home and
general prices weakened future expectations.

    (Logo:
http://www.xprn.com.cn/xprn/sa/200611140926-min.gif )

    The Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence
Index fell 1.3 points to 100.7 in August, the lowest level
since the survey's baseline reading of 100 in April this
year.

    Current conditions eased 0.5 point to 99.7 in August,
the third consecutive monthly decline. The relatively
slight decline in August came as an 11.4-point plunge in
sentiment on consumer prices was largely offset by the
recent positive performance of the stock market. Sentiment
on current personal finance remained unchanged, while
sentiment on whether it was a good time to buy higher-cost
durable goods like furniture and appliances declined.

    Under the support of the Xinhua Finance family, Xinhua
Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced
monthly by eziData, a local provider of China consumer data,
and in association with Dr. Richard Curtin.  Dr. Curtin is
Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment
Surveys at the University of Michigan's Institute of Social
Research. The survey this month was conducted through 1,533
telephone interviews from August 2 to August 13. April 2007
survey results are set as the benchmark value of 100. More
on the survey methodology can be found in the accompanying
section.

    Consumers' increasing desire to invest in the rising
stock market became more evident in August. The reduction
in the tax on bank deposit interest income helped somewhat
in curbing consumers' willingness to shift money from
savings to investment. However, the August survey showed an
increased willingness to reduce spending on daily expenses
and shift those funds into stock market investments. This
shift was a key reason for the decline in consumers'
willingness to purchase durable goods and cars during the
month. 

    Future expectations fell 1.7 points to 101.2 in August,
also the lowest level since the initial survey in April. The
decline was led by 3.5-point and 3.0-point drops in the
one-year and five-year outlooks for business conditions,
respectively, due to a continued sharp rise in home prices.
Expectations on personal finances remained relatively
stable, declining 0.3 point from July, though this was the
third fall in as many months. 

    Among income groups, the drop in overall confidence was
most pronounced among those making more than RMB 48,000 per
year. Their confidence dropped 1.8 points to 105.1, led by
a 2.3-point drop in the future outlook. Sentiment among
those earning less than RMB 48,000 per year inched down 0.6
point to 96.1. Sentiment on current conditions showed a
similar pattern of decline between the two income groups,
while the drop in the future outlook was less significant
for those making less than RMB 48,000 per year than for
those making more.

    The confidence gain among the youngest group of
respondents (aged 20-34) seen in July was more than erased
by a 1.8-point drop in August due to growing concerns on
rising prices and the future outlook for business
conditions. The middle-aged (35-54), for similar reasons,
showed a 1.3-point decline in confidence in August.
Confidence among older consumers (aged 55-64) showed the
smallest decline in August, down 0.7 point, as concerns on
rising prices eased due to the recent government promise to
raise pension levels each of the next three years. The
confidence level for each of the three age groups was the
lowest level since May.

    Regional Trends

    Consumer sentiment declined in all regions of China in
August, due largely to a deterioration in the future
outlook, led by a drop in the southern part of East China.

    Sentiment in the northern part of East China, including
Beijing, declined 1.3 points to 99.5, led by a 2.4-point
drop in future expectations to 98.5, the lowest level in
the five-month history of the survey. This was due to a
4.2-point dive in the one-year business outlook and a
7.3-point plunge in five-year business outlook, with both
declining for the second month in a row, especially in
five-year business outlook, which had fallen a cumulative
12.1 points in the last two months. The declines were due
to continued increases in home prices, which consumers
worry will impair long term business conditions in the
region. The outlook for personal finances in one year
improved by 1.8 points, probably due to optimism
surrounding the Olympic Games in Beijing next year. Current
conditions improved slightly by 0.7 point to reach 101.1,
probably due to rising stock market prices.

    Sentiment in the central part of East China, including
Shanghai, inched down 0.7 point to 99.8 in August, with
current conditions remaining unchanged and future
expectations falling by 1.1 points after a 0.5-point drop
in July. The decline in expectations in August was led by a
fall in the business outlook among the higher-income
households making more than RMB 48,000 per year. 

    As the July optimism brought about by the 10th
anniversary of the return of Hong Kong faded, consumers in
the southern part of East China, including Guangzhou,
started to face reality in August, which caused a 2.3-point
decline in confidence to 100.8, only a bit over the baseline
of 100 in April. Current conditions eased by 1.4 points, led
by a fall among younger consumers (aged 20-34). Future
outlooks fell by 2.8 points, with sentiment declining in
all age groups. The fall was led by a plunge in the
one-year personal finance outlook among lower income
households, probably due to the change in the government
policy to discourage exports of low-value-added products,
which will likely have a major impact on the processing
industries concentrated in the region's Pearl River Delta. 

    In contrast, consumers in Middle & West China
showed the most optimistic attitude in August, though here,
too, sentiment declined. The slight drop in overall
confidence by 0.7 point can be interpreted as an adjustment
after the sharp 2.9-point jump in July, with the overall
confidence level of 102.4 being the highest among the four
regions in August. Current conditions eased by 1.0 point
while the future outlook inched down 0.5 point to 104.2,
still well above the average outlook level of 100.2 in East
China. Sentiment on the five-year business outlook eased
slightly but remained at 163.7, the highest among the four
regions. The catch-up development going on the region,
aided by a shift in production from East China in search of
lower costs, has contributed significantly to optimism among
consumers in this region, especially among the younger
generation (aged 20-34). 

    Trends in Major Cities

    Consumers in Beijing were a little more confident in
August than in July, while their counterparts in Shanghai
and Guangzhou were less optimistic. 

    Sentiment among Beijing consumers rebounded a slight
0.2 point to 98.0 in August but remained below the levels
seen in the four months from April to June.  Current
conditions rebounded by 3.4 points, ending the decline in
the previous two months. The future outlook, however,
dropped another 1.5 points after a 5.4-point plunge in
July, as sentiment continued to be driven by feelings about
the 2008 Olympics. With the stock market rising in August
and the Olympics coming closer, consumers in Beijing were
more optimistic about the outlook for their personal
finances in a year's time, with a clear 7.8-point jump from
July. However, the five-year outlook declined again, largely
due to growing concerns about post-Olympic economic
conditions, the "Post-Olympics Syndrome". 

    Sentiment among Shanghai consumers dropped for the
second month in a row in August, down 1.5 points to 96.7,
the lowest level since April as well as the lowest among
the major cities. The slight 0.2-point improvement in
current conditions did little to offset the 2.4-point drop
in the future outlook. The drop in expectations was led by
a 6.2-point plunge in the one-year business outlook and a
5.8-point drop in the five-year outlook, the latter showing
a cumulative 10-point fall in the last two months. Shanghai
consumers expressed increasing concerns that the continued
surge in housing prices seen in August might undermine the
economic potential of the area.  

    In Guangzhou, consumer confidence eased 2.2 points to
100.7 but remained above the level of 98.9 in June.
Sentiment on current conditions inched down 0.7 point,
while the future outlook fell by 3.1 points. 


                                   Apr.     May     Jun.   
Jul.    Aug.
                                   2007    2007     2007   
2007    2007
    INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT
     ALL CHINA                      100    102.2    101.6  
102.0   100.7 
     EAST CHINA                    99.8      102    102.1  
101.5   100.2 
     EAST CHINA: NORTH            100.2    101.1    102.1  
100.8    99.5 
     EAST CHINA: CENTRAL            100    101.5    102.1  
100.5    99.8 
     EAST CHINA: SOUTH             99.4    103.2      102  
103.1   100.8 
     MIDDLE & WEST CHINA          100.6    102.8   
100.2   103.1   102.4 

    INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT WITHIN INCOME SUBGROUPS
(ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD)
     Under RMB 48,000              95.5     97.1     95.8  
 96.7    96.1 
     Over RMB 48,000              105.2      106    106.4  
106.9   105.1 

    INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT WITHIN AGE SUBGROUPS
     20-34                        104.2    105.9    105.9  
107.0   105.2 
     35-54                         96.4     99.2     98.3  
 98.1    96.8 
     55-64                         95.8     97.7     95.5  
 95.7    95.0 

    COMPONENTS OF THE INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT
     Current Index                  100    103.1    101.4  
100.2   100.7 
     Expectations Index             100    101.7    101.6  
102.9    99.7 
     Personal Finance: Current    123.8    129.2    126.8  
122.2   101.2 
     Personal Finance: Expected   128.9    131.9    130.4  
129.1   122.2 
     Business Condition: 1 Year   135.1    134.8    134.7  
137.8   128.8 
     Business Condition: 5 Years    149    153.4    154.6  
158.1   134.3 
     Durable Buying Conditions    103.4    105.1    103.4  
105.5   155.0 
                                                           
        104.3 
    INDEX OF SECTORS
     Index of Stock Investment      100     99.8    100.1  
101.0   105.9 
     Index of Real Estate           100     97.8     99.9  
100.1    98.5 
      Index of Car Purchase         100    104.1    100.3  
 98.5    95.4


    Selected Consumer Voices:

    -- Prices are rising so fast. I went to the wet market
trying to buy 
       something. But eggs cost more than three yuan (per
500 g) and pork cost 
       thirteen (per 500 g). I couldn't afford that. So I
just went home.

    -- Home prices are rising every day. I would predict a
more than 10% rise 
       in the latter half of the year. The more the
government controls, the 
       higher prices go.

    -- I'd choose to invest nowadays. I'd keep investing
with the money I make. 
       Saving doesn't make sense.

    -- Cars are still too expensive in China, plus
transportation conditions 
       are bad. In Beijing you go out and see traffic jams
everywhere. You are 
       better off taking a bus than driving your own car. 

    For more information about Xinhua Finance eziData China
Consumer Confidence Index or to subscribe to the full survey
report, please contact us via info@eziData.com.

    Methodology

    Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index
is produced in association with Dr. Richard Curtin,
Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment
Surveys at the Institute of Social Research, University of
Michigan.  The index is based on a monthly survey of around
1,500 Chinese households via stratified random sampling in
50 representative cities across East, Middle and West China
using the same methodology as is used by the University of
Michigan. All data is collected via computer assisted
telephone interviewing (CATI). Index of April 2007 survey
is set as the benchmark (100). 

    Notes to editors:

    About Xinhua Finance Limited 

    Xinhua Finance Limited ("XFL") is China's
premier financial information and media service provider
and is listed on the Mothers Board of the Tokyo Stock
Exchange (symbol: 9399) (OTC ADRs: XHFNY). Bridging China's
financial markets and the world, Xinhua Finance's
proprietary content platform, comprising Indices, Ratings,
Financial News, and Investor Relations, serves financial
institutions, corporations and re-distributors worldwide. 
Through its subsidiary Xinhua Finance Media Limited
(NASDAQ: XFML), XFL leverages its content across multiple
distribution channels in China including television, radio,
newspaper, magazine and outdoor media. Founded in November
1999, XFL is headquartered in Shanghai, with offices and
news bureaus spanning 11 countries worldwide.   

    For more information, please visit
http://www.xinhuafinance.com . 

    About eziData

    eziData is a local provider of China consumer data,
serving both financial and consumer market participants. It
aims to serve global and local business professionals with
decision-making tools that relate to consumption in China
and conform to international standards. eziData's
comprehensive portfolio of high-quality consumer data
products, which includes a structured real-time databank,
delivers a broader and more insightful view of the market.
For more information, please visit http://www.eziData.com .



    For further information, please contact:

     Xinhua Finance(China):

     Ms Joy Tsang
     Tel:    +86-21-6113-5999
     Mobile: +86-136-2179-1577
     Email:  joy.tsang@xinhuafinance.com

     Mr. Scott Zhang
     Tel:    +86-21-6113-5996
     Email:  scott.zhang@xinhuafinance.com
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